Too Much Pessimism On U.S. Economic Outlook?

The debate on the U.S. economic outlook has intensified over the last few weeks, with many commentators calling for a recession in 2019. Indeed, many economic indicators have recently pointed to a deceleration of economic activity, with the government shutdown that could accelerate the trend. The estimates of the negative impact of a 2/3 weeks government shutdown go from 0.2% to 0.4% on a quarterly basis. The impact could be even stronger if the shutdown last longer as public workers without a paycheck could further reduce their consumer spending.

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