Economic update – Euro zone monetary aggregates, UK GDP, US durable goods orders

Euro zone monetary aggregates for September ’16 softened expectation for a significant improvement of economic activity in early-2017. M1 growth rate declined from 8.9% y/y in August to 8.5% y/y and M3 growth rate from 5.1% to 5.0%. The data came out weaker than consensus expectations for an unchanged reading. Loans to non-financial corporation stood at 1.9% y/y.

Monetary aggregates strengthened the view that the ECM should maintain an easing monetary policy for the time being, extending the QE until September ’17, at least.

In UK, Q3 GDP growth came out stronger than expected at 0.5% q/q, against market consensus at 0.3% y/y. Despite being weaker than Q2 growth rate of 0.7% q/q, the data indicated that short-term impact of Brexit is limited.

In the USA, September durable goods orders came out in line with expectations at -0.1% m/m following a 0.3% m/m (revised from 0.1% m/m) increase in August. Durable goods ex-transportation rose 0.2% m/m. Capital goods orders non defense and ex-airplane declined 1.2% m/m after -1.2% m/m in August. The data are in line with a moderate expansion of the manufacturing segment in the short-term.

1 Comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.