The debate on the U.S. economic outlook has intensified over the last few weeks, with many commentators calling for a recession in 2019. Indeed, many economic indicators have recently pointed to a deceleration of economic activity, with the government shutdown […]
Economic data released today strengthened the view that economic activity in the Euro zone is decelerating at strong pace. The first negative indication came from the German industrial production data for November. Industrial production declined by 1.9% m/m and 4.7% […]
Having declined from 2,925 on October 3 to 2,351 on December 24 (-19.6%), the S&P 500 posted a solid rebound over the last few days of 2018. The index closed the year at 2,506. Despite this rebound, we still think […]
December labor market report published today came out much stronger than expected despite the unexpected increase of the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.9%. The increase of the unemployment rate is due to an increase of the participation rate from […]
The ISM manufacturing index for December came out worse than expected, falling from 59.3 to 54.1, against market expectations at 57.5. The main sub-indices also posted a strong decline. The new-orders index fell from 62.1 to 51.1, a very strong […]
The Fed will conclude today its two days monetary policy meeting. In line with consensus estimates, we expect the US Central Bank to hike rates by 25bp to a 2.25-2.5% range. We think that the sign of weakening of global […]
Housing starts came out better than expected in November:+3.2% to 1.256m. It was better than consensus estimates for an unchanged readingat 1.228m. Building permits rose 5.0% to 1.328m. Economists had forecasted building permits to decrease to 1.259m. The data reduced […]
The German IFO business confidence index fell in Decemberfrom 102 to 101.0, below market expectations for a decline to 101.7. For theIFO is the fourth consecutive decline. The current assessment sub-index fell to104.7 from 105.4, compared to expectationsfor 104.9.The business […]
The Australian Dollar rose on Tuesday December 5th to the one month against the USD as better than projected economic data (retail sales up 0.5% m/m against consensus estimate at 0.3% m/m) fueled expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia […]
Latest data confirmed that US economic outlook remains solid.Q3 GDP rose by 3.3%, higher than the 3.2% previously reported, and the Conference Board consumer confidence index soared in November to 129.5, anticipating an acceleration of consumer spending in the coming […]
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